Forecasts and Black Swans
The quote “’It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future‘” is attributed to a baseball-playing philosopher, Yogi Berra. And yet, we always try, with more or less success.
In the latest contribution, the AI and Data Analytics company AIMdyn, Inc. compared one week ahead predictions of COVID-19 cases on the CDC COVID-19 challenge (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) made by a variety of prominent research groups.